Even with the limits, the fresh new Essential Statistics provides the best offered data that to imagine the newest hot women from Berlin in Germany national separation and divorce price inside the 1990. S. Census Agency staff indicates that relationship events research throughout the ACS and you will You.S. Vital Statistics (like the DRA take to) try comparable ( Elliott ainsi que al., 2010). Prices for lots more the past few years are not you can once the government authorities deserted the new line of important statistics on the marriage ceremonies and you can divorces at county top when you look at the 1996.
With the intention that our very own results are sturdy, we did a supplemental investigation from the limiting the brand new 2010 ACS data to only the newest DRA sample claims which decades in the time of divorce or separation are advertised into the 1990. The results from this supplemental study are practically just like people according to the entire country, suggesting your escalation in the fresh new divorce proceedings speed is not an enthusiastic artifact regarding along with ACS data out of all the claims.
Analytic Method
Our approach is primarily descriptive as we aim to provide trend data on divorce and to identify the factors associated with divorce among today’s middle-aged and older adults. All results are presented for the total sample and separately for middle-aged (aged 50–64) and older (aged 65 and older) adults to assess whether there is cohort variation. To begin, we calculate the 1990 and 2010 divorce rates (and numbers of divorces) to determine whether the risk of divorce has increased over the past two divorce rates for various subgroups to show how the likelihood of divorce varies by sociodemographic factors (demographic characteristics, economic resources, and the marital biography). Next, we present bivariate comparisons of those who divorced versus remained e sets of factors. Finally, we estimate logistic regression models to examine how demographic characteristics, economic resources, and the marital biography are related to divorcing in the past 12 months (coded 1) versus remaining married (coded 0). Individuals who experienced widowhood in the past 12 months are included in the remained married category because they were at risk of divorce in the past 12 months. Excluding them from the analysis produced substantively similar findings (results not shown). These models provide correlational evidence only; divorces took place during the past 12 months, whereas the sociodemographic characteristics are measured at interview. Factors associated with the likelihood of divorce, such as employment or income, may have changed in response to divorce. Thus, interpretation of the findings requires caution. All analyses were conducted using replicate weighting techniques as recommended by the U.S. Census Bureau to generate robust standard errors because the ACS involves a complex sampling design ( U.S. Census Bureau, 2009). Given the large sample size of the ACS, we imposed a stringent threshold for statistical significance: a two-tailed p < .01>
R esults
While the revealed in Profile step 1, the brand new separation and divorce speed has actually doubled due to the fact 1990, ascending out of cuatro.nine so you can 10.step 1 divorced individuals per 1,000 married persons. It development belies the entire development about You.S. separation price during this period, which was essentially apartment at the 19.0 when you look at the 1990 and 17.nine in 2010 (effects perhaps not shown). The fresh doubling of your own speed out of separation one of center-aged and you will the elderly translates into a hefty boost in the new number of people old 50 and old exactly who sense separation. When you look at the 1990, everything 206,007 people aged 50 and you can more mature got divorced, whereas this present year on 643,152 had divorced. To help you contextualize which trend, consider you to definitely less than 1 in ten persons whom separated from inside the 1990 was aged 50 and you may old in contrast to more than step 1 into the cuatro today (results not shown). Furthermore, assuming new divorce rates remains constant along the second two decades-an old-fashioned expectation in accordance with the previous pattern-just how many people aged fifty and you can old who does experience breakup when you look at the 2030 manage go up by the 1 / 3 to help you over 828,380 (authors’ calculation according to age-certain estimated inhabitants brands from inside the 2030 [ You.S. Census Agency, 2004]), showing brand new speeding up development in the latest more mature human population which can exist over the 2nd twenty years.